The South Caucasus is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Following the Second Karabakh War, the region entered a new phase in which connectivity, infrastructure projects, and economic integration have become central elements of an emerging regional order. At the same time, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are increasingly strengthening their own political agency and engaging more directly with one another, gradually reducing the role of external actors in processes of normalization and post-conflict settlement. In this context, the TRIPP project, announced after the August 2025 White House summit and envisioned as part of the broader Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, could become an important step toward greater regional interdependence and integration in the South Caucasus. The integration of Armenia into the infrastructure of the Middle Corridor could connect the country not only to the regional space of the South Caucasus, but also to wider Eurasian and global trade networks.
At the same time, this transformation is accompanied by significant risks and challenges. Persistent mistrust among the regional states, competition among external powers for influence in the South Caucasus, and the risk that infrastructure initiatives may be used as instruments of geopolitical pressure remain major obstacles to sustainable regional cooperation. In this context, the influence and policies of Russia and Iran are particularly important, as both view changes in the regional balance and the diversification of transport routes as challenges to their strategic interests. Against this backdrop, an important question is what role the European Union can play in promoting connectivity, resilience, and regional cooperation as the basis for a more stable and interdependent South Caucasus.
