Policy Analyses
Let’s stay friends! The potential for EU-Turkey cooperation in the Eastern Partnership area (Link)
Ole Frahm and Katharina Hoffmann
September 2019
In times of increasing conflict, the European Union (EU) and Turkey should continue at least a minimum of cooperation by shifting the focus to novel areas that are not as politically charged. An area with potential for cooperation is the Eastern Partnership, which holds an important if not primary position in both Turkey’s and the EU’s foreign relations. Given the limited success of the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy, cooperation with an established regional actor like Turkey is especially attractive. Economic, cultural, historical and migration ties deeply connect Turkey with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Turkish actors also enjoy greater credibility than the EU due to their longstanding presence in the region and Turkey’s own very recent experience as an emerging economy. Co-operation should strongly involve non-state actors from Turkey, especially businesspersons. This would both enhance the connections to pro-European factions in Turkey and benefit the Eastern Partnership countries.
EU-STRAT Policy Comment
Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’: Whither Change? (Link)
Laure Delcour & Katharina Hoffmann
October 2018
“In spring 2018, the installation of former President Serzh Sargsyan as prime minister – a scenario which would have enabled the incumbent elite to maintain their grip over Armenia – unexpectedly failed to materialise. The 2015 constitutional referendum that transferred key powers to the prime minister as of spring 2018 paved the way for this swap scenario. Instead, on April 23rd, the newly appointed Prime Minister (and former President) Serzh Sargsyan resigned amidst a wave of protests that swept the country. This outcome to the demonstrations took many observers by surprise.
Admittedly, over the past decade, Armenia has been home to frequent protests against the ruling elite. In 2008, the flawed presidential elections that brought Serzh Sargsyan to power were followed by a brutal crackdown on protesters, killing at least ten people. None of the prior protests led to changes as substantial as the ones Armenia has experienced since spring 2018, though. In light of the authorities’ record of excessive use of force, there was little reason to believe that the 2018 protests would not end up with a brutal crackdown, thereby perpetuating the rule of the incumbent elite through a constitutional change. The scenario made possible by the constitutional amendments was also likely to materialise given its success in other post-Soviet countries, primarily Russia (Armenia’s strategic partner). Yet contrary to all expectations, the founder of the Civil Contract party and leader of the demonstrations, Nikol Pashinyan, was elected prime minister in early May 2018, raising considerable expectations among the Armenian population. ”
Journal Publications and Working Papers
Journal East European Politics
Dual agent of transition: how Turkey perpetuates and challenges neo-patrimonial patterns in its post-Soviet neighbourhood (Link)
Ole Frahm & Katharina Hoffmann
As hybrid regimes persist, we need to better understand their behaviour in international affairs. Concentrating on business actors, we use a qualitative study of Turkey's foreign relations with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in the period 2014–2018 to explore how hybrid regimes disseminate regime-related principles. Inspired by the concepts of neo-patrimonialism and limited access orders, we argue that hybrid regimes lack cohesion and cannot compel all relevant actors to disseminate a coherent set of regime-related principles. Depending on their domestic environment, Turkish actors transmit both neo-patrimonial closure and competitive openness, which makes Turkey's hybrid regime a dual agent of transition.
EU-STRAT Working Paper No. 13
Turkey and the Eastern Partnership: Turkey’s Foreign Policy Towards its Post-Soviet Black Sea Neighbourhood (PDF)
Ole Frahm, Katharina Hoffmann, Dirk Lehmkuhl
This paper discusses the main strands of Turkey’s post-Cold War foreign policy in its post-Soviet Black Sea neighbourhood of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine with a focus on the period of Justice and Development Party rule (2002-2018). Based on the analysis of Turkey’s rhetorical stance towards the region’s countries and its actual interaction across five sectors – trade, energy, security, education/culture and migration – our findings demonstrate that the foreign policy rhetoric with its strong emphasis on historical ties, economic and energy cooperation and support for regional countries’ territorial integrity is not matched by Turkey’s observable engagement. An important factor for the mismatch between rhetoric and engagement is that relations with the region are seen at least partly through the prism of Turkey’s more salient relations with Russia.